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Vivid Seats Inc. (SEATW)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q2 2025 revenue of $143.6M declined 28% YoY and 12% QoQ; revenue missed S&P Global consensus by ~$10.2M (actual $143.6M vs $153.8M estimate; -6.6%) while Primary EPS sharply missed due to non-cash impairments (actual -12.29 vs -0.64 estimate) with a $320.4M goodwill/intangible impairment recorded in the quarter .*
  • Management announced a $25M annualized cost reduction program to be fully actioned by year-end 2025, already realizing >$5M, and expects positive cash flow in Q3 on seasonality and the view that June’s industry softness was atypical .
  • Competitive intensity in performance marketing remained “near peak” and industry volatility persisted, with FTC “all-in pricing” contributing to conversion pressure; sports were down double digits, concerts up low single digits but down in June .
  • Corporate action: 1-for-20 reverse stock split effective August 5, 2025; SEAT begins trading split-adjusted August 6, 2025; warrants (SEATW) proportionately adjusted .
  • Strategic focus: shut down Vivid Picks, accelerate cost/AI-enabled efficiencies, invest in platform differentiation (Skybox analytics) and international expansion (live in four European countries, contribution-positive thus far in 2025) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Identified and executing $25M annualized cost savings to “right-size” the organization and enhance long-term efficiency; “We are taking decisive action to strengthen our foundation for the future.” — CEO Stan Chia .
  • Platform differentiation: rolled out incremental analytical capabilities within Skybox; management believes these are “well received” and retentive for professional sellers .
  • International expansion: now live in four European countries; contribution-positive year-to-date with margins exceeding expectations, supporting a case for measured acceleration .

What Went Wrong

  • Industry and competitive headwinds: “consumer spending pressure” and “continued competitive intensity” led to YoY declines (GOV -31%, revenue -28%, adj. EBITDA -$29.8M) and significant EPS miss driven by a $320.4M impairment .
  • Performance marketing auctions remain uneconomic with competitors bidding aggressively for top search positions, pressuring acquisition economics and take rate levers .
  • Category mix and macro: sports down double digits (soft playoff matchups; tough comps like Copa America/Women’s basketball), and FTC all-in pricing rollout weighed on conversion through June .

Financial Results

MetricQ2 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Revenues ($USD Thousands)198,316 164,023 143,566
Net Income (Loss) ($USD Thousands)(1,221) (9,788) (263,327)
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Thousands)44,178 21,721 14,356
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)22.3% 13.2% 10.0%
EPS vs EstimatesQ1 2025Q2 2025
Primary EPS Consensus Mean ($)-0.287*-0.645*
Primary EPS Actual ($)0.300*-12.290*
Primary EPS – # of Estimates—9*
Revenue vs EstimatesQ1 2025Q2 2025
Revenue Consensus Mean ($USD)168,554,800*153,764,210*
Revenue Actual ($USD)164,023,000*143,566,000*
Revenue – # of Estimates—10*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

KPIsQ2 2024Q2 2025
Marketplace GOV ($USD Thousands)998,065 685,488
Marketplace Orders (‘000)3,097 2,173
Marketplace Take Rate (%)—16.7%
Cash and Equivalents ($USD Thousands)—153,007
Total Debt ($USD Thousands)—~392,000
Net Debt ($USD Thousands)—~239,000
Segment Revenue Mix (Marketplace)Q2 2024 ($000)Q2 2025 ($000)YoY Change
Concerts80,803 50,586 -37%
Sports51,457 35,818 -30%
Theater30,932 23,744 -23%
Other6,854 4,330 -37%
Total Marketplace Revenues170,046 114,478 -33%
Contribution Margin by Segment ($USD Thousands)Q2 2024Q2 2025
Marketplace Revenues170,046 114,478
Resale Revenues28,270 29,088
Cost of Revenues (Marketplace)25,163 18,162
Cost of Revenues (Resale)23,602 24,267
Marketing and Selling70,114 53,800
Contribution Margin (Marketplace)74,769 42,516
Contribution Margin (Resale)4,668 4,821
Consolidated Contribution Margin79,437 47,337

Notes: Q2 2025 included non-cash impairment charges of $320.4M impacting GAAP results .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious Guidance (3/12/25)Current Guidance (Q1/Q2 2025)Change
Marketplace GOV ($B)FY 2025$3.7–$4.1 Suspended / Not providing Withdrawn
Revenues ($M)FY 2025$730–$810 Suspended / Not providing Withdrawn
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)FY 2025$110–$150 Suspended / Not providing Withdrawn
Cash Flow (Quarter)Q3 2025—Management expects positive cash flow in Q3 New qualitative

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q4 2024)Previous Mentions (Q1 2025)Current Period (Q2 2025)Trend
Competitive intensity in performance marketingPrepared to invest to protect market position “Robust” competitive intensity; guidance suspended “Near peak” intensity; auctions remain uneconomic Worsening
FTC all-in pricing impact——National rollout pressured conversion; normalization TBD Emerging headwind
Category performance (Sports/Concerts)——Sports down double digits; concerts low-single-digit up but down in June Mixed-to-negative
Skybox/Tech differentiationSkybox Drive added robust functionality Cost-disciplined investments in marketing/tech Incremental analytics rolled out; seller retention focus Improving
International expansionKicked off European launch —Live in 4 EU countries; contribution-positive Positive
Macro/ConsumerExpect easier H2 comps Consumer uncertainty; industry flat-to-down Volatility persists; Vegas proxy down mid-to-high single digits; June down double digits Deteriorated in Q2
Corporate actions——1-for-20 reverse split effective 8/5/25 Executed

Management Commentary

  • “We have identified $25 million of annualized cost savings… fully action by the end of 2025… to strengthen our foundation for the future.” — CEO Stan Chia .
  • “We anticipate positive cash flow in the third quarter due to typical seasonality improvements and a belief that the degree of June’s industry volume softness was atypical.” — CFO Lawrence Fey .
  • “Internationally, … now live in four European countries… exceeding our margin expectations… net contribution positive thus far in 2025.” — CEO Stan Chia .
  • “Q2 Marketplace take rate was 16.7%… anticipate near-term take rate will remain in the 16% range.” — CFO Lawrence Fey .
  • “We chose to shut down Vivid Picks… regulatory components unique and distinct from our core… decided to shut that down.” — CEO/CFO .

Q&A Highlights

  • Take rate and competitiveness: Management emphasized sustaining/increasing competitiveness via both take rate and marketing levers; reinvestment likely focused on customer value proposition (pricing, loyalty, promos) over paid search given poor incremental yield .
  • Cost savings buckets: Majority from G&A (people/software); fixed marketing to be reduced; $25M is a full-year annualized figure to be fully actioned by year-end 2025 .
  • FTC all-in pricing: National rollout pressured conversion; prior state-level data suggests normalization after a digestion period; volatility continued but July reverted to YoY positive .
  • International vs U.S.: International offers structurally sound economics and is contribution-positive; management continues measured expansion while focusing U.S. on retention/LTV amid CAC pressure .
  • Private label dynamics: Disproportionate decline due to a large partner change, pressuring private label volumes in Q2 .

Estimates Context

  • Revenue missed consensus: Actual $143.6M vs $153.8M estimate (≈ -6.6%); QoQ down ~12% vs Q1 actual $164.0M (Q1 also missed vs $168.6M estimate) .*
  • EPS miss magnitude: Primary EPS actual -12.29 vs -0.64 estimate; miss driven primarily by non-cash impairment charges ($320.4M) and TRA liability remeasurement, not core operations; adjusted EBITDA remained positive at $14.4M .*
  • Implications: Expect downward estimate revisions to GOV/revenue and EBITDA for 2025 near term (guidance withdrawn), but potential stabilization as cost actions flow and seasonality supports Q3 cash generation .*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Near-term caution: Significant EPS miss driven by non-cash impairments and ongoing competitive/macro headwinds; revenue and EBITDA under pressure; estimates likely to drift lower until industry conditions normalize .*
  • Watch seasonality and cash: Management expects positive Q3 cash flow; monitor weekly GOV cadence and July/August trends for confirmation of stabilization .
  • Structural repositioning: $25M cost program, shut down Vivid Picks, and AI-enabled efficiency push should improve operating leverage; track pace of realized savings through H2’25 .
  • Strategic focus on LTV: Reinvestment prioritizes customer value proposition (pricing, loyalty, promos) over paid search, aiming to improve retention/repurchase economics amid high CAC environments .
  • International optionality: Early contribution-positive results in Europe create incremental GOV/profit tailwinds from a small base; monitor country expansion and margin trajectory .
  • Take rate expectations: Q2 take rate at 16.7%; management guides near-term around ~16%; shifts will reflect mix and competitive levers .
  • Corporate action optics: 1-for-20 reverse split effective 8/5 enhances marketability; warrants (SEATW) adjusted proportionately; consider technical trading dynamics post-split .

Additional Sources Read

  • Q2 2025 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 (press release, full financials) .
  • Q2 2025 earnings press release and slides .
  • Q2 2025 earnings call transcript .
  • Q1 2025 press release and 8-K .
  • Q4 2024 press release (prior guidance) .

Notes: All company-reported figures cited to source documents. Estimates tables marked with * are from S&P Global.